I don’t know if the one we call “Maradona” will “walk” or “run” in 2007. Some say he’s an “evil genius.” But if we’re talking the presidential race, there must be more of a “genius” than the “devil” in him, to make Aso Rock. 

The Argentine Maradona, when he was on the football pitch, ran good. Dribbling runs, they call in sports. He moved places and used the “hand of God” sometimes – all towards the same aim of scoring goals – to make his people happy. Outside the pitch, he “walks,” sometimes, into vices, like some of us. He’s been accused of  doing drugs and all. But he remains a legend, when it comes to football.

Indeed, it was in recognition of such admirable attributes that Nigerians labelled Ibrahim Gbadamosi Babangida “Maradona,” when he was the head of state. Yes, he “dribbled” us with his “shifting cultivation” type of transition programme. Eventually, he stepped aside, in tears. But his influence has been such that if my uncles refuse to give my grandmother money, she blames it on IBB. In politics, if a man fails election is his ward, it’s IBB. And now that the mill is awash with talks of IBB contesting the presidential election in 2007, the political equation suddenly seems to defy all calculations. And the strategists are over loaded with “early jobs.”.

I don’t know if IBB can run any race. Is it marathon; 4×400; 100metres or relay?  Physically, IBB is getting old. His bones must be weaker than they were 20 years ago. But politics is a different matter. It’s more of brain power, strategising and money. Not much of physical strength is needed. Would Obasanjo and a bunch of oldies we read about in schools still there if the reverse was the case? 

Well, IBB hasn’t said if he would “run” in 2007. If he “runs,” I can’t say if I would support him. Anyway, what support has a pauper? But, as a realist and pragmatist, I would go for anyone bound to bring positive change. The kind of change that probably would allow for a “live-and-let-live” situation. A “chop-I-chop” regime. 

If, indeed, IBB is interested, he should be more specific than merely putting it “in prayer,”  like he told a group of campaigners led by Alhaji Usman Nagogo. The prayer thing has failed with Nigerians. Did Obasanjo not use the prayer trick –“waiting on God” – to deceive us? That would therefore be a wrong strategy for IBB – or any other presidential hopeful, for that matter – to use. If he “walks,” like the Americans would say, it means he’s not contesting the 2007 race. It would mean he would stay out of view. He would be on the fence or hiding behind to prop somebody – the way he did to Obasanjo. But if he decides to “run,” then there are a few things the “genius” in him must check: what he says and what others say on his behalf.

Recently, IBB, elated over the GCFR national award “dashed” him by Obasanjo, reportedly urged Nigerians to expect harder times. Using Obasanjo’s refrain, he said, “no sacrifice is too much.” But IBB and Obasanjo can afford to talk about sacrifice, because they are not sacrificing anything. So, if IBB is running in 2007, he should learn to talk the language of the poor – how he would make things better. He should empathise with the masses. Not telling them to die sacrificing to make those in power richer. 

Recently, people have been falling over themselves, trying to “campaign” for IBB, even before he got a party. In the process, they damage, rather than polish the man’s image. They say things that may mar, rather than make the chances of the former leader. However, the most interesting has been IBB’s brother-in-law, Sonny Okogwu. In a recent interview with  The Week magazine, the chief spoilt IBB’s rating with contradictory statements. First, Okogwu said IBB would not “run” in 2007. Then, he advised General Muhammadu Buhari to recontest in 2007, assuring him of his support. Yet, Okogwu said there would be no election in 2007 but in 2008. According to him, an Interim Government would be in place in 2007, with a foreign head. Well, just before we asked whether Lord Lugard was coming back to rule us, Okogwu said a South African would lead the ING. Or is it IG?

For a man who claimed he had no political ambition because his “nature revolts against politics,” the chief  said he would be  VP Atiku Abubakar’s  running mate in 2007, “if we later settle on Atiku.” He never said who the “we” were. But Okogwu’s pronouncements raised a lot of curiosity. And questions. The man spoke as if the “we” had concluded arrangements to sell Nigeria to an “apartheid regime.” No, he spoke as if the “selling” had already been done. As if they were merely waiting for 2007, to take over. He said,  “if care is not taken, a Nigerian, a black man will  not rule this country in 2007…the worst is coming.” Well, if a “black man” won’t rule, we have fair Nigerians, don’t we? 

The inconsistencies of Okogwu’s statements would ordinarily recommend that he be ignored. But not when the same Okogwu once predicted doom for Obasanjo’s regime, if he failed to honour an alleged agreement with a clique that installed him. And his prediction seems to be materialising! Okogwu insisted then that Obasanjo had a pact with a cabal but was reneging – especially by contesting a second term. That, he said, was the root of the regime’s problems.

Well, whether true or not, Okogwu is a senior member of  the society. He’s influential. He’s always close to the corridors of power, where oppression oozes to suffocate the masses. So, if he says there won’t be election in 2007 and that there would be ING, I get worried. Who does Okogwu want to “take care”? Obasanjo? Nigerians? IBB? And what exactly does “if care is not taken” mean? Is that a threat of coup? How should the “care” be taken? Unfortunately, the Kaduna-based businessman didn’t say. 

Being IBB’s brother-in-law,  there is a fat chance meaning could be read into the chief’s statements. In fact, the statement was pregnant with meanings. So, he needs to be explicit. Do his pronouncements mean more than mere words? Was he warning Nigerians to prepare for coup? If, for instance, there’s a coup before 2007, Nigerians would quickly link IBB to it – considering the seeming “threat” from Okogwu. And what brought that idea of a South African coming to rule Nigeria, even if for one day? Is Okogwu saying that the nation’s so bad that we can’t find another Ernest Shonekan that could be manipulated out later? 

Personally, I don’t like military regime. That does not mean I like Obasanjo’s civilian government better. But is coup what we need now? Is that what IBB stands for? Is that what would give IBB a civilian presidency in 2007 or 2008? What makes Okogwu so sure that his ING would relinquish power in 2008 for IBB and co? 

True, everybody is trying to play into IBB’s heart. But it can be done without talking from both sides of the mouth. Even IBB needs a word of caution.

From my mail box

I enjoy your column

I have really enjoyed your column. Keep it up.

 “Udeme Ubong” uddyut@yahoo.com

Matazu is not interested in the poor

 Thanks for your piece on the House chairman on Education. Garba Matazu is not concerned about the poor parents; all he is interested in is his own pocket and that of President Obasanjo. I think the House should take note of him and relief him of that post. Keep up your good work.

“charles eyibio” <charleseyibio@yahoo.com>  

• First published in Saturday Sun of  Jan 31, 2004