Decoding Tinubu’s budget for 2025 reveals both promising initiatives and serious concerns. The government’s ambitious targets, particularly regarding inflation, exchange rates, and revenue, could set the country up for disappointment.
In his recent presentation to the National Assembly, President Tinubu outlined his vision for the 2025 Budget, termed the “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity.” This ambitious plan aims to stabilize Nigeria’s economy, enhance security, and foster growth. However, when compared to the 2024 budget, several issues and inconsistencies arise, sparking debate among analysts and experts.
Decoding Tinubu’s budget: Revenue and expenditure discrepancies
One of the most contentious aspects of the 2025 Budget is the significant increase in both revenue and expenditure. The government is targeting a revenue of 34.82 trillion naira, up from 14.55 trillion naira in 2024. In contrast, the projected expenditure for 2025 stands at 47.90 trillion naira, with a 13.08 trillion naira deficit.
The issue here is the gap between projected revenues and spending. Coupled with the large deficit, it raises doubts about the feasibility of these targets.
“The proposed revenue targets are highly optimistic given the current economic climate,” says Dr. Ayodele Olayinka, an economist. “The government needs to demonstrate a clear path to meeting these targets.” The increase in spending, particularly the 15.81 trillion naira allocated to debt servicing, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability. Critics argue that it further burdens an already overstretched economy.
Debt servicing crisis
The 2025 budget places a staggering 15.81 trillion naira on debt servicing. This continues the trend from 2024, where debt service was a major drain on the budget. Given the projected 47.90 trillion naira total expenditure, this amounts to roughly 33% of the total budget allocated for servicing debt.
Expert worry that this could portend ill for the economy. According to Chidi Okechukwu, an economic analyst, “The escalating debt burden is a ticking time bomb. It’s a risky path to sustainability.” Despite Nigeria’s growing foreign reserves, there’s little discussion about long-term debt management strategies. Experts frown at government’s over-reliance on borrowing, which they say undermines the nation’s future fiscal stability.
Inflation and exchange rate projections
Tinubu’s administration projects inflation to decline from 34.6% to 15% by 2025, with the exchange rate improving from 1,700 naira to 1,500 naira per US dollar. These projections are ambitious, especially given that inflation and currency depreciation have been persistent issues in Nigeria’s economy.
“Such targets are highly speculative,” says Ngozi Odela, a financial expert. “Achieving these projections depends on unpredictable global economic factors.” Analysts are concerned that these optimistic figures could lead to disillusionment if not realized. The government’s fiscal projections, experts argue, seem overly optimistic without concrete plans to manage the external factors affecting inflation and exchange rates.
Security and defence spending in decoding Tinubu’s budget
For 2025, the government has earmarked 4.91 trillion naira for security, an increase from 2024’s budget. While national security remains critical, some experts question whether this allocation is being used effectively to address the root causes of insecurity in Nigeria, such as poverty and unemployment.
“More money isn’t always the solution,” says Sulaimon Okuboyejo, a security expert. “What’s needed is a strategic overhaul of the security forces, not just funding.” According to him, without addressing the underlying causes of insecurity, increased funding may only lead to temporary solutions, not long-term peace.
Infrastructure and human capital development
In his presentation, President Tinubu highlighted infrastructure projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and increased investment in education and healthcare. Education gets 826.90 billion naira, while healthcare is allocated 402 billion naira for infrastructure. However, these large sums are only part of the solution.
Dr. Zainab Bala, an education expert, commends the allocation. The problem, however, is in accountability. “Previous budgets had similar allocations but saw little execution on the ground,” she observed. The significant gap between budgeted amounts and the actual implementation of projects. often raises concerns about transparency and efficiency.
Agriculture and food security challenges
Agriculture continues to be a central focus, with a large portion of the 2025 Budget allocated to boosting agricultural production. However, experts say insecurity remains a significant challenge to farming in many regions. The ongoing conflicts have devastated agriculture, particularly in the North, where food insecurity is widespread. “Investing in agriculture is critical, but without security, these efforts will fall flat,” says Mallam Ibrahim Adamu, an agricultural economist. “Farmers cannot work in an environment where they are constantly under threat.”
Private sector and economic growth
The budget emphasizes public-private partnerships to drive growth, especially in infrastructure. The government seeks to boost foreign direct investment through fiscal stimulus and incentives for businesses. However, many experts argue that the business environment remains hostile due to inconsistent policies and regulatory challenges.
For instance, Clara Onyeka, a business consultant, says government must show real commitment. “Fostering a favourable business environment requires more than just tax incentives,” she says. “The government must also tackle corruption, ease bureaucratic processes, and ensure stable power supply.”
In other words, government must address systemic issues, such as power shortages and corruption. For, the goals outlined in the budget and the structural reforms can only be achieved when the relevant gaps are closed. Is government ready to match its ambitious rhetoric with actionable plans? Until then, the “Budget of Restoration” may remain a hopeful vision rather than a tangible reality.
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